China SMEI – Exports drive small-business growth | 渣打中国中小企业信心指数 – 12 月出口拉动中小企业绩增长

Published on 2021-01-04

• 12月SMEI由上月52.9降至52.7;增长动能指数上扬
• 12月中小企业受出口走强推动表现改善,但前景预期更为谨慎
• 生产提速,主要受劳动密集型制造业出口大幅增加驱动
• 银行对中小企业放贷支持力度减弱;中小企融资成本进一步攀升

• Headline SMEI eased to 52.7 in December from 52.9 in November; growth momentum indicator held up • SMEs performed better in December on stronger exports, but the outlook turned more cautious
• Production accelerated, largely driven by exporters in the labour-intensive manufacturing sector
• Banks’ credit to SMEs turned less supportive in December; SMEs’ financing costs climbed further

中小企经营活动稳固上行,但前景预期更为谨慎

我们对全国逾 500 家中小企业开展的月度中小企业调研最新一期数据显示,12 月中小企业经营基本稳固,但受到预期未来增长放缓的负面影响(图表 1)。12 月渣打中国 中小企业信心指数(SMEI,彭博代码 SCCNSMEI)三个分项指数中,中小企业“经营现状”指数由 11 月的 53.1 进一步升至 53.5,“预期指数”下滑 0.4 个百分点至 52.9,“财 务状况”指数下滑 0.6 个百分点至 51.6(图表 2)。由此导致,12 月 SMEI 由上月 52.9 小幅回落至 52.7,增长动能指数(新订单减去产成品库存)由上月 8.0 巩固至 9.3。

出口型中小企业表现领先,经营现状指数升至纪录高位 58.112 月出口新订单和生产 现状指数分别加速上升 8.7 和 6.4 个百分点,反映全球其他经济体疫情复发导致停工停 产的背景下,外部需求强劲和国内产能提升。在消费活动持续复苏的带动下,服务业 中小企业表现加速向好。

12 月调研结果显示:(1)尽管销售和生产在 12 月进一步提速,预计 2021 年一季度 将放缓;(2)劳动力市场保持稳固;(3)被动去库存持续,强劲的需求推动投入品 价格上升;12 月银行对中小企业放贷支持力度有所减弱,中小企业融资成本上升,尽 管企业现金流状况仍显健康。我们预计未来几年中小企业定向支持措施将继续保持, 尽管政策刺激力度或有序回归正常。

Activity held up, but the outlook is cautious

Our survey of over 500 SMEs nationwide shows that SME activity has broadly held up in December, though tempered by expectations of growth moderation ahead (Figure 1). The ‘current performance’ gauge rose further to 53.5 from 53.1 in November, but the ‘expectations’ reading slipped 0.4ppt to 52.9, and the ‘financial conditions’ reading slowed 0.6ppt to 51.6 (Figure 2). As a result, the headline SMEI (SCCNSMEI <index>) edged down to 52.7 from 52.9 in November, while the growth momentum indicator (new orders minus finished-goods inventory) strengthened to 9.3 from 8.0 prior.

Export-oriented SMEs outperformed, their current performance reading rising to a record-high 58.1. Exporters’ new orders and production sub-component readings accelerated 8.7ppt and 6.4ppt, respectively, in December, reflecting strong external demand and improved production capacity amid a COVID resurgence elsewhere. The services sector grew faster on the continued normalisation of consumption activity.

Our survey responses showed that (1) while both sales and production accelerated further, they were expected to ease in Q1-2021, (2) the labour market made steady progress, and (3) passive destocking continued, with input prices rising on resilient demand. Banks’ credit to SMEs turned less supportive in December and SMEs’ financing costs increased, although their cash flow appeared to remain healthy. We expect the targeted policies supporting SMEs to remain in place in the coming year, although the degree of stimulus will likely be normalised in a measured way.

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